The Yankees just finished an exciting series against the Twins, winning two of three, with all three going Over the total. The Yankees have now gone Over the total in their last five games. They average 6.4 runs per game on the road, which has helped 34 of their 46 road games get Over the total. Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello met in London in the 17-13 game and neither made it out of the first inning. Over is the top play.

Every Yankees vs. Red Sox game is huge at this point in the season, and my model gives the clear edge to Tanaka. Porcello has a .425 wOBA allowed in 16.2 innings in July and I expect that trend to continue against this Yankees lineup. The loss of Gary Sanchez is minor as this lineup is absolutely loaded from top to bottom. I make the Yankees -132 in this spot.

Masahiro Tanaka is 7-5 with a 4.0 ERA and he hasn’t taken a loss in seven consecutive starts. Rick Porcello is 8-7 with a 5.61 ERA and he has a 10.57 ERA in his last five starts. Porcello has faced the Yankees once outside of London and he gave up five runs in 4.2 IP. The Yankees are 28-18 on the road while the Red Sox are 24-25 at home. The Red Sox are 0-5 as the home underdog and they are 1-6 against the Yankees this season.