The questionable tag on Jean Segura is the only real question in this game. Aaron Nola faces a weak Tigers offense that ranks dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The addition on the DH in the American League park will help this Phillies offense against Matt Boyd. This line is relatively efficient as I make it -151 but I'm comfortable making the play with Nola in these weather conditions (cool night in Detroit).

Aaron Nola is 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA this season and he is 2-0 with a 2.10 ERA in July. Matthew Boyd is 6-8 with a 4.13 ERA this season and he is 1-2 with a 6.38 ERA in July. Boyd has given up at least four runs in each of his last six outings, while Aaron Nola had thrown five straight quality starts before facing the Dodgers in his last outing. The Tigers have only won 13 games at home all season and they are 7-13 when Matt Boyd starts while the Phillies are 13-8 when Nola starts. I like the value in the Phillies with their ace on the mound.

Aaron Nola has gotten out of his funk, and the Phillies have won six of his last seven starts on the road. The funk hasn't ended for Matthew Boyd, however -- the Tigers are 1-7 in his last eight starts at home. Philadelphia wins a hefty 70 percent of my simulations -- that success rate offers an implied differential of -233, so we're getting a big value on the favorite here. Take Nola and the Phillies.