The Twins are one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, but they will be without C.J. Cron in the middle of the lineup tonight. The Yankees should run at least eight right-handed bats against Martin Perez who I project for a .350+ wOBA allowed. I have the Yankees winning 57 percent of simulations, making them a nice value at -119.

The Yankees have gone an impressive 26-17 on the road this season, averaging 6.2 runs per game which have helped 31 of those games get Over the total. The Yankees come into this series winning five of their last six games and the last time Martin Perez faced the Yankees in August they lit him up for seven runs. The Twins have lost five of their last seven games. Yankees to win.

Both teams start lefties, and the Twins are the best-hitting team against southpaws. But they've lost four straight against them as well. The Yankees have won five of six against LHPs and have blown past the Twins for the best record in baseball. New York wins 60 percent of my simulations as the offense gets to Minnesota starter Martin Perez.

The Twins crush left-handed pitching. They rank second in OPS (.860) versus southpaws. Plus, they got a huge emotional boost from Sunday's thrilling comeback win over Oakland. CC Sabathia sports a 5.84 road ERA, with 11 homers allowed in just 37 innings. Back the home dog in the opener of this high-profile series.