Trent Thornton didn't last long in his last start, at Boston, getting only four batters out while giving up five runs. Things won't be much better in Detroit today with a hot 95 degrees expected and winds blowing out at 12 mph. The Tigers, losers of their last five games, are also going to help this game get Over with one of the worst bullpens in MLB (5.07 ERA). Over is the play.

Daniel Norris is 2-8 with a 5.14 ERA this season and he has given up 11 runs in his last 10.2 IP. Trent Thornton is 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA this season and he threw five scoreless innings in his only start against the Tigers. The Tigers are 3-21 in their last 24 games and the Blue Jays are hitting right now. Take the value in the Blue Jays.

My model says that Toronto wins about two-thirds of simulations, so you're getting solid value with the Blue Jays at this price. Toronto hammered Detroit, 12-1, on Friday, sending the Tigers to their 26th loss in their last 29 home games and their 21st loss in their 24 games overall. Detroit is allowing 6.4 runs in its last 24 games. Take Toronto.