The line movement on this game has created value on the Rays with Blake Snell on the mound. The Yankees are a dangerous lineup against left-handed pitching, and the park shift doesn't help, but Rays should not be +137 with Snell against Paxton. This Rays lineup will take advantage of the improved hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium. My simulations make the Rays +125 meaning we have nice value at +137.

Blake Snell is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA this season and 2-4 with a 6.48 ERA on the road. In 10 career starts at Yankee stadium he is 1-5 with a 6.34 ERA. James Paxton is 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA this season and he is 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA at home. He faced the Rays for the first time this season in his last outing throwing six innings only giving up two runs. The Yankees are 30-12 as the home favorite and they are 9-4 against the Rays this season.

The Yankees should be bigger favorites in this spot against Blake Snell, who's struggling this year and carries an all-time mark of 1-5 with a 6.34 ERA in 10 starts at Yankee Stadium. Look for James Paxton to deliver his third straight strong start, and lay it.