The Indians have won four straight while the Reds have won three straight with the last two being shutouts. The Reds have won 11 of their last 17 and despite being three games under .500, they're only four games out of first place in the NL Central. Anthony DeSclafani has beaten the Indians each of the last two seasons, allowing one run in each. He didn't allow a run in his last start, nor did Shane Bieber in 8.0 innings. Under is the top play.

Shane Bieber is 7-3 with a 3.54 ERA this season and 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA on the road. Anthony Desclafani is 5-4 with a 4.35 ERA and he is 3-2 with a 4.0 ERA at home. Both of these pitchers pitched well in June, but the Indians are 11-6 when Bieber starts while the Reds are 9-7 when Desclafani starts. The Indians are 18-12 as the road favorite and 10-4 after a day off.

Shane Bieber (7-3, 3.54 ERA) takes the mound for the Indians. He's coming off one of his best starts this season (zero runs, three hits in 8.0 innings at Baltimore). My model says Cleveland wins more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting good value at this price.