Zach Davies and Steven Brault hooked up last week in Milwaukee and both allowed just one run in a no-decision during the Brewers' eventual 2-1 win. The Brewers have had some trouble scoring runs lately which has kept eight of their last nine Under the total and they've lost their last three, the last two being shut out at Cincinnati. Under is the top play here.

The Brewers are winning nearly 60 percent of my simulations, making them a strong play at this price. Against these same Pirates on June 30, Milwaukee starter Zach Davies allowed one run in 5.1 innings -- a game the Brewers won 2-1. While Pittsburgh is in better current form (10-4 last 14 games), the Brewers have won seven of the past eight meetings. Take Milwaukee.