Zach Eflin is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA this season but he has a 4.38 ERA in his last eight starts, six of which the Phillies lost. On the road, he is 2-5 with a 3.62 ERA. Mike Soroka is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and he is 4-0 with a 3.71 ERA in June. The Braves are 37-18 as the favorite while the Phillies are 8-20 as the underdog. Lay the favorite.

My numbers see the Braves with a major edge Thursday against the Phillies, making Atlanta worth the moderate price. My simulations have the Braves winning this matchup 73 percent of the time and by a margin of 1.5 runs in those contests. The Braves are 8-0 in Mike Soroka's starts against NL East opponents and have won his past five home outings. Philadelphia is on a 1-5 run against right-handed starters.