There's a window of value Monday night on San Francisco against a San Diego club that appears to be getting slightly overvalued in the market. Padres castoff Alex Dickerson returns to Petco Park as a member of the Giants. He has hit .375 with two homers and 12 RBI in 10 games for his new team. Jeff Samardzija appears to be on the decline as an effective MLB starter, but he is 8-3 in his career against the Padres and 4-2 with a 2.44 ERA at Petco Park.

Jeff Samardzija is 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA this season including 3-3 with a 5.18 ERA on the road. He was 2-3 with a 5.93 ERA in June. Logan Allen is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts this season. The Giants are dead last in OPS against lefties and the Padres have won nine of the last 13 games. Take the value in the Padres at home.

It's a steep price but I'll back the Padres and lefty Logan Allen as he makes his third major-league start. He's 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and will be facing a Giants team that ranks dead last in OPS versus lefties (.616). Lay it.

The Padres have won nine of 13 and my projections show they're the better team in Monday's matchup against the rival Giants. But Jeff Samardzija has a career 8-3 record against San Diego, and the Giants are better on the road than they are at home. San Fran wins only 42 percent of my simulations, but this huge underdog price makes it a worthy value play.