In three starts this season, Adrian Houser has given up eight runs in eight innings pitched. He is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA in nine appearances on the road. Tyler Mahle is 2-8 with a 4.35 ERA but he is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA at home. The Reds are 21-18 at home while the Brewers are 18-21 on the road. Take the value in the Reds at home.

Tyler Mahle has stayed Under the total in 12 of his 15 starts this season, including four of five at home and his last four overall. The Brewers are having trouble scoring and have stayed Under in their last five games. The Reds have lost five of their last seven while averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Just the Under.

The Brewers' Adrian Houser was a successful reliever, but his one start didn't go well and he was yanked after two innings. The Reds have won six of their last seven at home and are 4-1 at Great American Ballpark in the last five home starts of Tyler Mahle. Cincy wins more than 60 percent of my computer simulations. Snag the slim home underdog while it's still an underdog.