Zack Wheeler is 6-5 with a 4.69 ERA this season, but he is 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA on the road. Aaron Nola is 6-2 with a 4.55 ERA this season, but he is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA at home. The Mets have had the lead in all three of the games this series, only for the bullpen to lose all three. The Mets are 11-22 as the road underdog while the Phillies are 26-14 as the home favorite. Lay the home favorite with their ace on the mound.

Aaron Nola has been dynamite at home, going 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA. Over his last four starts covering 27.2 innings, he's allowed six earned runs while fanning 37. The Mets are limping to the end of their 11-game road trip. Lay it as the Phils get the four-game sweep.