The Giants have won five of Tyler Beede's six starts this season. But it has been more about the Giant' bats waking up rather than him pitching well. He's given up four runs or more in four of his starts. The average score when he starts has been 5.2-5. The wind is blowing out at 12 mph to center field. Arizona just called up Alex Young from Triple-A to make his MLB debut. Arizona swept all three at San Francisco last month and all three went Over. Over is the top play again Thursday.

Alex Young is being called up for the Diamondbacks to make his Major League debut. Tyler Beede is 1-2 with a 6.96 ERA this season and he is coming off a four inning, four earned run performance in Arizona. The Giants are dead last in OPS against lefties and the Diamondbacks are finally healthy with Ketel Marte and Jake Lamb back. The Dbacks are 24-19 on the road, while the Giants are 16-23 at home. Take the value in the Dbacks.

The Giants are 5-1 this season when Tyler Beede gets the ball. But his numbers suggest the San Francisco offense simply has real good days when he's throwing. The Diamondbacks give Alex Young, who has struggled in the minors this year, his first MLB start. But Arizona's offense has a big edge over San Francisco's. The D'backs win nearly 60 percent of my simulations at a price that indicates it should be closer to 50 percent. Arizona is the value play here.