Lucas Giolito is 10-2 with a 2.74 ERA this season, although he is coming off his worst start of the season. Eduardo Rodriguez is 8-4 with a 4.71 ERA this season. The White Sox are about the middle of the pack in OPS against lefties this season, and Lucas Giolito threw a quality start in seven of his last eight games before his last outing. Although the Red Sox are 11-4 when Rodriguez starts, the White Sox are 11-3 when Giolito starts. Take the value in the White Sox.

Lucas Giolito was among the game's best pitchers, until he was shelled by the Cubs last week. He's still 10-2 with a 2.74 ERA, but my projections don't believe the White Sox will do enough against Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez. Boston wins 69 percent of my simulations, which offer an implied differential of -223, so the considerable value is on that side.