Padres starter Eric Lauer has allowed 24 runs over his six road starts, spanning 27.2 innings and all six of his starts have gone Over the total. Pirates starter Joe Musgrove allowed six runs in his last outing and the Over has occurred in his last six starts. The Pirates have gone Over in eight of their last nine and they're the second-best Over team in MLB. The Padres are hitting .331 over the last week while averaging 8.3 runs per game. Over is the play Friday.

Joe Musgrove has been very inconsistent as of late, and he has reverse splits with a 5.71 home ERA. In one start against San Diego this season he went 6.1 IP giving up four runs. Eric Lauer has been good on the road outside of a couple bad Coors Field starts. Besides the two starts at Coors, he has allowed more than three runs only twice this season. The Pirates have the fourth worst OPS in the league against lefties while the Padres have scored the second most runs in the league in the last seven days.

My simulations have the Padres beating the Pirates 60 percent of the time in their series opener Friday, providing a great value on the road team against a flat price. The PaPittsburghdres have won four straight when Eric Lauer pitches on full rest and have won four straight against right-handed starters. Pittsburgh is on a 2-9 run against left-handed starters.