The surging Reds visit Milwaukee coming off a home sweep of the Astros. Their pitching was integral to that series, and apparently oddsmakers are undervaluing their staff as they are 14-1 to the Under in the past 15 outings. But the offenses should get going Thursday. Cincinnati starter Tanner Roark is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his past three outings. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson has a 10.29 ERA and hasn't gone past the fourth inning since recovering from shoulder surgery. He has a 5.32 ERA in 12 career starts against the Reds.

It’s extremely rare for a team to complete a sweep at home as a steep underdog in each game. The Cincinnati Reds accomplished this feat against the Astros and did so by averaging just 3.3 runs. On Thursday they’ll face a Milwaukee Brewers team that faltered in the same fashion as Houston. They were swept in San Diego as steep favorites to conclude an eight-game road trip. Look for the magic to end for the Reds, and for the Brewers to correct their issues returning home.

The Brewers are coming off a 2-6 road trip including a sweep by the Padres. The Reds have won four in a row and are coming off a sweep of the Astros. Both these teams play differently at home vs. on the road, but I like Tanner Roark much more than Jimmy Nelson. Roark is 3-1 with a 3.6 ERA in six starts on the road while Nelson has given up eight runs in seven innings this season. A good thing to look at when a pitcher comes back from an extended absence is command, and Nelson has walked six batters to just eight strikeouts so far.

The Brewers are an impressive 22-13 at home, but Jimmy Nelson has done nothing to make Milwaukee this big of a favorite Thursday. In his two starts this season, he's been shelled for eight earned runs, nine hits and six walks in just seven innings. With another solid outing from Tanner Roark likely, the Reds are offering value.