It's not often that you can find the Astros available as an underdog, and when I can, I like to take advantage. Yes, the Reds have Luis Castillo starting, but the Astros do not strike out often, and Castillo has an 11.5% walk rate on the season that could prove problematic against an offense this good.

Wade Miley is 6-3 with a 3.14 ERA and Luis Castillo is 6-1 with a 2.2 ERA. Miley has thrown 13 quality starts in 14 appearances this season and the Astros are 10-4 when he starts. The Reds are 22nd in the league in runs scored and OPS against lefties. The Reds are just 16-17 at home and 7-7 when Castillo starts. Take the value in the Astros as the underdog.

The Astros are underdogs here for just the seventh time all season, and that's mostly because Luis Castillo is going for the Reds at home. But Cincinnati is only 7-7 when it hands the ball to the rising ace, while Houston is going with Wade Miley -- the team is 11-4 in his starts, and is coming off six innings of shutout ball his last time out. The Astros win 64 percent of my simulations. Jump on this line before it changes.