Clayton Richard will be making his fifth start of the year and he’s 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in his first four. Framber Valdez is 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA this season and in his only start he gave up one run in seven innings. Houston has the third highest OPS in the league against lefties while the Blue Jays have the fifth worst. Vladdy will most likely be out of the lineup after being hit by a pitch in the hand yesterday, and the Astros are 24-9 as the home favorite. -115 is good value.

I think Astros rookie Yordan Alvarez, who has crushed three home runs in four games, has really infused energy into a lineup missing George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa even though Houston was still winning without them. My model has the Astros winning this game 77 percent of the time, so this money line is solid value even at this price. Go with the 'Stros.