Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer is favored in this game, as though his rating from last season is the same. He's not the same, and the Indians lose most of his starts because of him. They've lost six of his last seven, including his last four. He's given up 36 runs over his last seven starts. reds starter Luis Castillo was sharp over six innings at St. Louis last week, allowing just one run. Reds are the play Tuesday.

The Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds had Monday as an off-day to prep for game one of their series Tuesday. Both Tuesday’s starters in Luis Castillo (2.38) and Trevor Bauer (3.93) have solid ERA’s. In an inter-league matchup one would believe that should continue. Yet look for the Reds streak of being in matchups of seven runs or less to end at seven straight games. Take the Over (-112).

These Ohio teams are a combined 15-6 following a day off this season. But my projections like the Indians at home, and for a great bounce-back spot for Trevor Bauer. Luis Castillo has been roughed up in two of his last three starts. Cleveland wins 62 percent of my simulations, so the money line price is fair.