JA Happ is 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA this season and he’s coming off a one run, 5.0 IP performance against the Red Sox. Edwin Jackson is 0-3 with a 13.22 ERA in four starts this season and he’s coming off a 10 run, 2.1 IP performance. The Blue Jays have the sixth worst OPS against lefties in the league and their bullpen is fatigued after winning two close games the last two days. The Yankees are 9-3 when Happ starts and the Blue Jays are 0-4 when Jackson starts.

My numbers not only see the Yankees beating the Blue Jays in nearly 80 percent of simulations Thursday, but New York is winning by an average margin of a whopping three runs per contest. These factors make New York a relative bargain against the price. The Yankees have won the last five road starts by J.A. Happ and six straight when he starts against losing teams. Toronto is 1-8 in its last nine Game 3s in a series.