Tyler Beede is coming off his best start of the year by a long shot, but he has still given up 11 earned runs in 12.2 IP this season. Jason Vargas has only given up one run in five of his last six starts. In five career starts against the Giants, he is 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA. The Giants have the second worst OPS in the league against lefties and the Mets are 15-10 at home. Take the Mets at home.

The Mets are trending in the wrong direction, but they pick it up when Jason Vargas throws. New York is 5-1 in his last six starts and 4-0 when it’s against a team under .500. They’ve also won nine of 11 at Citi Field. He also owns a 2.12 ERA in five career starts against the Giants.