The Padres got smacked around by the Marlins by identical 9-3 losses on Saturday and Sunday. They've lost five of their last seven. But the Phillies come in on a four-game slide and kept all four games Under the total. The Phils are batting just .195 in their last seven games. Aaron Nola has come around lately with solid outings while the Padres have won Eric Lauer's last three and all stayed Under. Under (-105) is the top play.

Petco Park has always been pitcher-friendly, but those conditions take on a new level when games are played at night there. I'm not a meteorologist, but there's just something about the park's dimensions combined with the local weather that makes it harder to hit home runs at night, and in this day and age, if you're not going yard, you're not scoring many runs. With temps in the mid to low 60s, a stiff breeze blowing in from left, and Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer on the mound, I expect runs will be at a premium in this one.

In his last seven starts, Aaron Nola is 4-0 with a 2.5 ERA and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those starts. Eric Lauer is 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA this season but the Phillies are the ninth best team in the league at scoring runs against lefties. The Phillies are 28-12 as a favorite, and 8-3 as the road favorite. Take the road favorite.

Philadelphia has won 28 of 40 games when favored, and eight of 12 when Aaron Nola gets the ball. Neither team comes in hot -- Philly has lost four straight, San Diego five of seven -- but the Phillies win a solid 60 percent of my computer simulations against Eric Lauer and the 26th-ranked run-scoring Padres offense. Take the road favorite here.