My simulations say the Diamondbacks win this game more than 60 percent of the time, so you’re getting strong value here. The Mets start lefty Steven Matz, and Arizona crushes lefthanded pitching. The Diamondbacks rank second in the majors in batting average (.297) and OPS (.877) against southpaws. Meanwhile, Arizona starter Merrill Kelly is 2-2 with a 2.64 ERA in five starts at Chase Field. Go with the Diamondbacks.