Matthew Boyd has easily been the best starter for the Tigers this season, going 4-4 with a 3.11 ERA. However, Dylan Bundy has been good as of late with a 2.28 ERA over his last four starts. Both these teams have been bad recently, but the Orioles are 12th in the league at scoring runs against lefties. I like the Orioles at home.

It's hard to back the Tigers right now, given how bad they struggle offensively, but in this spot I like them behind lefty Matthew Boyd. He's fanned 41 and walked five over his last six starts, and he's coming off six scoreless innings versus the Marlins. Baltimore's Dylan Bundy has given up 12 homers, including nine at home in just 32.2 innings.

The Orioles are just 3-7 on the year when Dylan Bundy gets the ball. But he's also sporting a 2.28 ERA over his last four starts, and the Tigers' offense is not producing. Baltimore takes a big 63 percent of my model simulations, and at an underdog money line price.