My data shows the Yankees beating the Orioles in nearly 75 percent of simulations for their Thursday meeting. My numbers also have them winning by more than two runs in those victories. These lopsided factors are enough to justify laying the price with New York. The Yankees are 16-5 when Masahiro Tanaka starts in the road against opponents with losing records. The Orioles are just 1-6 in the last seven home starts by Dylan Bundy.