Matthew Boyd is having a great season with a 4-4 record and 3.41 ERA this season, while Trevor Richards has been inconsistent with a 1-5 record and 4.44 ERA. The Tigers offense isn’t much better, but the Marlins are the worst hitting team in the league against lefties. The Marlins are on a five-game win streak while the Tigers are on a seven-game losing streak. However, the Marlins are 1-8 when Richards starts this season and Richards is 1-7 with a 4.92 ERA on the road in his career. Lay the favorite.

Matt Boyd's been one of the better pitchers in baseball this season, though nobody notices because he's on the Tigers. Against the worst offense in baseball I expect him to have a strong performance. I'd take the Tigers on the moneyline, but I don't trust them enough to pay the current price. Instead I'll take the Under.

My numbers see eight runs or fewer crossing the plate Thursday between the Marlins and Tigers, providing a strong position on the Under against the posted total. The Under is hitting in nearly two-thirds of simulations for this contest. Miami has played Under in six of its last eight interleague games. Detroit is 4-1 to the Under when Matthew Boyd pitches on full rest.