Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco has an ERA of 4.18 on the season, but it's a misleading number. He's pitched much better than that ERA suggests, and Cleveland's offense has been playing better the last few weeks itself. I like the Indians at home in this matchup a lot.

Brett Anderson is 4-3 with a 4.41 ERA this season while Carlos Carrasco is 4-3 with a 4.18 ERA this season. Anderson is 3-0 with a .82 ERA in five career starts against the Indians and the Indians have the 21st ranked OPS in the league against lefties. Oakland has taken two of three from the Indians this season, and both teams are 5-4 when their pitcher starts. Take the value in the Athletics.

The A's offer nice value as road dogs against Carlos Carrasco. The Indians are the better team and should win this game, but the A's win this matchup more often than 39.5 percent of the time that the odds imply. My simulations have the A's winning 47 percent of the time, making them a strong value bet.

Oakland has won just one game out of 11 as a road underdog, but my projections see a pretty close game as Brett Anderson and the A's, fresh off a sweep of the Tigers goes against Carlos Carrasco and an Indians offense that often has not shown up. Oakland wins 45 percent of my simulations, but at this money line it's a great value.