Jose Berrios is the ace of the Twins staff and is coming off his worst performance of the season. On the road, Berrios has been 40 cents better than the average pitcher, including his last road start at Toronto where he went 7.0 scoreless innings with no walks and five strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Mariners are just 9-23 in their last 32 games and 4-12 their last 16. Starting pitcher Wade LeBlanc is a 34-year-old journeyman who is coming off the IL with a right oblique strain. Take the better team with the better pitcher laying a short price: the Twins.

The Twins' four-game winning streak and the Mariners' recent slump have inflated Seattle's price here to more than it should be. Minnesota starter Jose Berrios (6-2) is coming off his worst game of the season, allowing a career-high 12 hits in 5.2 innings to the Angels. He is 1-2 in three career starts against Seattle. My model has the Mariners winning this game 56 percent of the time, making this money line a strong value.