On Thursday as a home underdog, the White Sox delivered in the eighth inning to break a tie game against the Blue Jays. On Friday, oddsmakers are on Chicago's side with starting pitcher Ivan Nova on the mound. Nova defeated the Blue Jays on May 11 for his second consecutive victory. But expect a reversal tonight with Aaron Sanchez pitching better than he did in Sunday's loss to the White Sox.

Aaron Sanchez is a high variance pitcher that has the ability to rack up the strikeouts in a hurry against this White Sox lineup. The value in this play is directly correlated to the strikeout upside and the volatility of Ivan Nova at this point in his career. I have the Blue Jays winning 54 percent of simulations in this road matchup.