The closer I've looked at this matchup the more I've liked the value available on the Royals. Mike Minor has been the best thing the Rangers have pitching-wise, but while his ERA is a lovely 2.68, his xFIP of 4.17 suggests rougher times could be ahead. That combined with a Texas bullpen that's been a mess the last couple of weeks means the Royals could be a sneaky play here coming off a blowout win last night.

Hitting conditions are ideal tonight in Kansas City and that's not a good thing for the Royals with Jorge Lopez on the mound. My simulations have the Rangers winning 60 percent of the time, suggesting they should be closer to -150 road favorites.

Mike Minor is 3-3 this season with a 2.68 ERA including a 2.77 ERA in his last four starts. Jorge Lopez is 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA this season and he’s coming off a 2.1 IP, six run performance against the Astros. The Royals have the sixth worst OPS against lefties this season, and the Rangers score the sixth most runs in the league. Although the Rangers are 5-15 on the road, they are 5-1 as the favorite and 6-1 in the second game after a day off. The Royals are 1-6 in games started by Lopez and our sims have the Rangers winning this game 65% of the time, take the value in the Rangers.

The Rangers have won just five times on the road all season, and only three of Mike Minor’s eight starts despite his stellar overall numbers. That said, the Rangers should be able to take advantage of Royals starter Jorge Lopez, 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA. Texas wins a solid 65 percent of my computer simulations. The money line is showing solid value with the Rangers.