If the season were to end right now, Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo would receive a lot of NL Cy Young votes. Still, while Castillo's been great, the Reds are 16-22 on the season and only 7-14 on the road. If you want to trust them as this large a road favorite, that's your prerogative. I don't.

My data sees the Giants taking down the Reds more than half the time in their Friday meeting, giving us massive value on the home underdog. San Francisco's offense got going with 25 runs in a two-game split with the Rockies, and the Giants split a four-game series with the Reds before heading to Denver. San Francisco deserves a little more respect than this price is offering.