The A's have lost Mike Fiers' last three starts and four of his last five, which includes three games that he allowed six runs. Four of those games went Over. The Reds and A's have each gone Over the total in four straight games, but it's the Reds' bats that have been the most impressive. In their wild four-game series against the Giants, Cincy had 42 hits and 37 runs. The wind is blowing out slightly toward right-center. Over is the top play here.

The Reds are just 1-5 this season when Tyler Mahle starts and the team is only 6-12 on the road. My projections like the inconsistent Mike Fiers to be on his game against one of the poorest-hitting teams against right-handed pitchers. Oakland wins 65 percent of my simulations, which gives them an implied differential of -185. Getting then anywhere near -120 is a great value.

The Reds' Tyler Mahle has above-average stuff and his numbers are going to continue to get better. Mahle has cut his walk rate from 4.26/per 9 to 1.91/per 9 and almost 7 percent more ground balls. His BABIP is .344 which will start to turn, and then his ERA will plummet near his xFIP of 3.20. Pitching in Oakland at night will help as the A's are No. 22 in the league versus righties -- almost 11 percent below the average offense. Fiers has had a poor start to the year. Throw out his first start in Japan, but since that point he's had four good starts and three really poor starts. Those starts were at home against Toronto and on the road at Texas and Houston. He should find navigating through the Reds' lineup much easier as they rank No. 27 versus righties almost 25 percent below the average lineup.