The same reasons I picked the Under in last night's contest still apply to this afternoon's. The Padres offense has struggled mightily the last two weeks, and the wind is blowing straight in from center.

My data sees the Braves beating the Padres in more than 60 percent of simulations for their Thursday meeting, making Atlanta a worthwhile play at the relatively light price. The Braves are 6-2 in their last eight against left-handed starters and are also on a 9-4 run in home games against opponents that have winning records. Back Atlanta in this matinee matchup.