The Brewers lineup has been very successful versus lefties. They're No. 9 in OPS and No. 6 scoring 5.8 runs per game. Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland had a tremendous year last year however he was very lucky. I expect Freeland's 2019 ERA to look more like his xFIP of 4.22, as his groundball rate has declined the last two years. The Rockies are scoring one less run per game on the road as they do at home from 4.9 to 3.9. This is so obvious by the hitters ball park because of the elevation. Last year they averaged 5.4 at home and 4 on the road. The Brew Crew's Zach Davies was the missing piece during last year's playoff run. Davies won 28 games combined during the 2016-17 seasons. Davies is just 26 and is back healthier than ever before. Davies has nothing overpowering just throwing two pitches, an 88 mph fastball and his devastating change up.

Kyle Freeland has struggled so far for the Rockies, and the team is 2-3 when he gets the ball. The Brewers are 6-2 as a home favorite, while the Rockies have not taken it to a new level when the underdog. That includes a rough 2-7 as a slight dog of +129 or lower. Milwaukee wins more than 60 percent of my simulations. The implied probability puts the fair spread at -163, making the Brewers' price a great value.