The Athletics were on the business end of a surprising sweep last weekend in Oakland by the Blue Jays, which is why we're seeing a bit of an adjusted price The bulk of the A's lineup has hit well against Marcus Stroman, who has a lifetime 5.11 ERA against them. A's starter Mike Fiers has struggled of late, but the team has won five straight behind him when he goes on full rest. Oakland has won four straight in Toronto and is on an 8-2 road spurt against opponents with losing records.

Marcus Stroman has changed his approach in 2019. He's gone from a sinker ball pitcher to a guy who throws his slider more often than any other pitch, and to this point, it's worked very well for him. He still gets plenty of ground balls, and hasn't allowed a HR yet this year, all while increasing his K rate. All that said, I don't trust this Blue Jays offense much, as it strikes out too often, but I think Stroman will limit Oakland's offense enough that the Under comes into play, as this total is a tad too high.

My data sees the Athletics knocking off the Blue Jays in nearly 60 percent of simulations for their Friday meeting, giving us major value on the slight road underdog. Oakland has won five straight games behind Mike Fiers when the pitcher goes on full rest and is on an 8-2 run in road games against opponents that have losing records.