Sonny Gray had an excellent spring in his three starts, but this price against Trevor Williams is 15 cents too high. I was a little surprised that Williams wasn't the Opening Day starter. I'm certain he didn't want 2018 to end because he was in such a groove from July through September. He has also feasted on Reds hitters going 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in five starts. In two of his last three starts against the Reds, he didn't allow a run. Pirates are the play.

Saturday's game between these two was rained out, and I took the Reds in that matchup because they've hit Pittsburgh starter Trevor Williams so well. Williams will start Sunday as well, and I see no reason to change course, as current Reds hitters have still lit him up with a wOBA of .452 in 90 career plate appearances.