This total is at least 0.5 runs too low for this matchup. The Reds are one of the better Over teams in baseball, with a 24-10-1 record when the total is 8 or 8.5 runs. I'm projecting nearly 5 runs for the Giants thanks to a massive park shift moving away from AT&T in San Fransisco. My wOBA model has this projected at 9.4 runs. Take the Over.

Matchups that present near even money lines are often looked at as no-value games. Yet Friday’s should be different as the Giants travel across the country to take on the Reds. Oddsmakers appropriately made the Giants slight road favorites in a game that likely will get out of hand early. Don’t be blinded by the strong consecutive victories from Anthony DeSclafani. Grab the Giants.