Jon Lester has been a key cog in the Cubs rebuild, helping bridge the gap between Lovable Losers and World Champions. But he’s been awful lately. All season long the peripherals have suggested a major course correction was coming Lester’s way, and it has arrived. Lester has an ERA of 10.32 in his last five starts, and has allowed nine homers. There’s value on the Pirates in this matchup as home dogs.

Cubs lefty Jon Lester has been in full meltdown as the Cubs have lost four of his last five starts, including his last three. In those four losses, he gave up 26 runs and all four of those went Over, which includes a 5-4 loss at Pittsburgh on July 31. Pirates starter Ivan Nova has beat the Cubs in both starts against them this season. Over is the top play Thursday.