Rain is expected Monday night at Yankee Stadium and the wind is blowing in slightly. Yankees starter Luis Severino appears to have shaken his three-game funk in which he gave up 17 runs combined and now the Yankees are 19-5 behind him. Mets standout Jacob deGrom has stayed Under the total in six of his last seven. Look for both lineups to struggle. Under is the play Monday.

Betting against the Yankees hasn?t been a very profitable strategy this season, but I like the value on the Mets tonight at +175 with Jacob deGrom on the mound. Luis Severino has been far from sharp since the all-star break. The Yankees are clearly the superior team in every way, but my model has the Mets winning 41percent of simulations with deGrom pitching, making them a nice value at +175.