Tanner Roark might be on the best run of his career, allowing a combined two runs in his three starts since the All-Star break. The Cubs have lost Jon Lester's previous two starts, which both exceeded the total. He allowed five runs in his last outing to the light-hitting Padres and four runs in the prior start to the Pirates. The Nats lost a tough one on Friday, but bounce back for the win on Saturday.

In Tanner Roark's first 20 starts, he recorded thee wins, 12 losses and five no-decisions. Over his last three outings, the Nats starter is 3-0 with a minuscule 0.82 ERA. Contrast that with Cubs left Jon Lester, who has racked up a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts. The simulations indicate the Nationals take this contest 53 percent of the time by an average of a half-run. Look for Washington to eke out this win.