The Diamondbacks have won Clay Buchholz's last four starts, and I think that continues Friday in Cincinnati. He's fanned 25 batters in that span, including eight last time out versus the Giants. Look for Arizona to go 9-3 in its last 12 games at Cincy.

The trusty projection model sees the surging Reds beating the Diamondbacks in about 60 percent of simulations for their Friday game, offering outstanding value on another home underdog. The Reds have won five straight home games against right-handed starters and four straight against winning opponents.