There are a couple of factors in play in Milwaukee Friday night causing me to find strong value on the total. The first is that the wind is blowing from center. It’s not often Miller Park is affected by weather due to its retractable roof, but when it is, the wind has an impact. The next factor is that these are two teams fighting for a playoff spot. I’ve often found that the better the teams are in a game, the more likely there are to be less runs scored. Good teams are good because they prevent their opponent from scoring!

The trusty projection model likes the Brewers to take down the Rockies more than 60 percent of the time in their Friday showdown. This data makes Milwaukee worth the play at the short price. The Brewers are 6-2 in their past eight home games against right-handed starters and have won four consecutive home starts by Junior Guerra.