Kyle Gibson lost his last start, giving up four runs in a 6-5 loss to the light hitting Royals. The Twins have gone 4-8 in his last 12 starts. One of those losses was June 21 at home against the Red Sox, a 9-2 loss. Boston has gone 4-1 in Brian Johnson's starts with him allowing only six earned runs. The Red Sox start the series off with a win; they're 22-11 in the first game of a series this season.

My data sees the Red Sox beating the Twins in 75 percent of simulations for their Thursday meeting and by nearly two runs per contest. These staggering numbers make Boston a huge value at the relatively moderate price. The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last seven home games against losing teams, and have won five straight behind starter Brian Johnson. The Twins are 1-4 in road starts by Kyle Gibson.