As I've shared here before, the Under is 19-4 when Colorado pitcher Kyle Freeland starts at home. It might not be a trend that's sustainable, but it's one I'm going to ride until it throws me off.

Robbie Ray has struggled his last two games, but he should be fine today after the Rockies blew some steam last night with 19 runs. The main bet here is about Kyle Freeland, who has stayed Under in 14 of his 18 starts. His teammates in the rotation hate Coors Field, but the Denver native loves it, posting a 2.89 ERA at home. Under is the top play.

Arizona has won nine of its last 10 at Colorado, but I love the Rockies on Thursday behind Kyle Freeland, who sports a 2.89 home ERA. Robbie Ray has served up five homers over his last two starts and will face a Rockies team that ranks fourth in OPS versus lefties (.775). The D-Backs also hit lefties well (.763 OPS) but Freeland is in much better current form.

The projection model sees about nine runs crossing the plate Thursday when the Diamondbacks and Rockies meet at Coors Field, giving us a strong value position on the Under against a total of 11. Arizona is on an 8-2-1 Under clip against left-handed starters, including four straight on the road. Colorado is on a 7-1 Under run of its own against lefty starters.