The Under has gone 6-2 in Miles Mikolas' last eight starts thanks in large part to his 51.6% groundball rate. That and Arizona being one of the worst-hitting offenses against righties this season makes me comfortable with an Under in the desert tonight.

This is a great pitching matchup, but the Cardinals get the nod from my projection model by a full run. They've been a clutch road team more often than not, and the computer is projecting huge offensive days by Tommy Pham and Matt Carpenter. Snag the Cards as a decent-sized underdog.