This game just has all the ingredients for an under. Luis Severino takes the bump for the Yankees, and while he's been dominant all season, he's been even better at home. In eight starts at Yankee Stadium he's posted a 1.52 ERA and opponents have hit .167/.225/.242 against him. Meanwhile, Seattle's James Paxton isn't exactly a slouch himself. The Big Maple has a 3.20 ERA in eight road starts with opponents slashing .219/.269/.353 against him. Thursday won't be a fun day to hit at Yankee Stadium.

The Mariners may be 10-5 when James Paxton starts, but the Yankees are 13-2 when Luis Severino takes the hill. Severino hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start in more than a month, and he's a wicked 6-0 with a 1.52 ERA at home. The Yankees are a premier hitting team at home, as well. Go with the Yankees.

My numbers see a one-score game Thursday between the Yankees and Mariners at least two-thirds of the time, providing a value spot on Seattle while pocketing 1.5 runs (-125). The Mariners are 6-1 in the past seven road starts by ace James Paxton, and have won four straight when he pitches on full rest. Grab the value with insurance on Seattle.