Giants starter Derek Holland has continue to improve. Holland's ERA for the month of June is 2.57 and the Giants are 3-1 in his last four starts. Miami's Jose Urena is 2-8 and the Marlins are 2-13 in his 15 starts. I have Urena rated as an average major-league pitcher. His last three starts were improved, but they were against Baltimore and two of the last four against San Diego. I made the Giants -165 -- there's value in backing them Wednesday.

The Marlins are just 2-13 when Jose Urena starts, but my advanced computer can appreciate how he's been pitching. Miami wins in more than half of my simulations, but take the runs and that number skyrockets to 70 percent. Take the Marlins plus-1.5.