The Yankees have hit the Over in more than two-thirds of their games, and this pitching matchup favors runs. My computer simulations average 10.5 runs, making the Over a solid place again here.

The Yankees are gaining steam after a series win over the Blue Jays, while Minnesota got swept by the Rays over the weekend. But the door is open for an upset, and a big payout, tonight with an inconsistent Masahiro Tanaka on the hill for New York. He's given up 12 earned runs in his last 10 innings. Minnesota is the smart value play.