The struggling Rockies are predictably regressing, but they are still overvalued because of their strong home record. The White Sox are just 18-29 on the road but they are still the clear value side in this one.

The Rockies have been in a major hitting slump as they've fallen dramatically from the top of the NL West. They've stayed Under the total in nine straight games. I don't like betting against streaks, but the White Sox are hitting their best of the season and ride a six-game Over streak. Derek Holland has gone Over in 11 of his 16 starts and gave up five runs in his last start. Over is the play Friday.

My projections have the Rockies and White Sox combining for 10 or fewer runs in nearly 80 percent of simulations for their Friday showdown, offering substantial value on the posted total of 12.5. The Rockies are on a 7-0-1 run to the Under and 4-1 in the past five starts by German Marquez. Chicago is 4-1 to the Under in its last five road games against winning teams.