Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Expert Picks
Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has been largely excellent this year while posting a 3.50 ERA that's backed up by a 3.19 FIP. Reds starter Homer Bailey's first start of the season was horrendous, and it's possible he's finished as a viable MLB pitcher. The Brewers also just got Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar back, making their lineup even more dangerous. They should be favored here, so we're getting great value.
The Brewers should be in a good position Thursday to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Reds. Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey came off the 60-day disabled list last weekend and allowed eight earned runs against Washington while failing to get out of the second inning. He is 5-8 with a 4.64 ERA in 22 career starts against Milwaukee. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has had moderate success against the Reds, with a 4-3 record and 4.62 ERA in 10 starts. Take the situational value on Milwaukee.
The trusty projection model tells me the Brewers should win their Thursday matchup with the Reds about two-thirds of the time and by a margin of nearly two runs. This gives us a must-play spot on Cincinnati against the flat price. The Reds are on a 14-2 in Game 3 of a series, while the Reds are 1-5 in Homer Bailey’s last six home starts.