Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
Jake Arrieta is available at a fair price tonight on the road against the Pirates. According to xwOBA (expected wOBA) Arrieta has been one of the most unlucky pitchers in 2017. A nice park shift to PNC park should help kickstart some of the positive regression I'm projecting for Arrieta. Lay it with the Cubs.
My numbers say the Pirates will win their Saturday showdown with the Cubs about 55 percent of the time, giving us a strong overlay on the home underdog. Surging Ivan Nova has won four straight home starts against losing teams, while the struggling Jake Arrieta has dropped five straight road starts.